Who are people voting for in the 2020 elections?
By Jhanvi Verma
There’s a pandemic going on, but it’s time for the 2020 elections in the United States. This year, the Republican party’s candidate is Donald Trump, the current US president. On the other hand, former US vice president, Joe Biden is the candidate from the Democratic party.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling data, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in the election polls by 9 percentage points. This was the same case in the 2016 elections when Hillary Clinton was in the lead by 6 percentage points against Trump in the national polls, but he ended up winning the elections.
Noor Chaudry, 20, a pre-med student at the University of Illinois at Chicago believes that this time it’s about voting for anyone but Trump.
Many voters like Chaudry say they are voting for Biden because they don’t want to see Trump in the White House again.
“Trump cannot be the president for the second-term and Biden is the only other option. Hopefully, with Kamala Harris on Biden’s side, he’ll be able to make thoughtful decisions than Trump has as president,” said Areeba Ali, 21, a junior at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
In 2016, the voter turnout for Trump on election day was higher than Clinton even after she won the popular vote. At the end of the day, Trump was able to secure this seat by winning the electoral votes. Like 2016, people may expect Biden to win the elections due to the polls. However, there’s a possibility that Trump will be able to secure his win.
According to the analysis on Google Trends, Donald Trump has been most searched in states such as the District of Columbia, Oregon, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire. When it comes to Biden’s search analysis, he was most looked up in states such as the District of Columbia, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Wisconsin as shown below.
Looking back at the 2016 elections, Donald Trump was most searched in Vermont, Maine, Massecheuttes, and Connecticut. On the other hand, Clinton was being searched in Clinton Vermont, Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire. The result was not in Clinton’s favor despite being ahead in the election polls conducted during the 2016 elections.
According to sources, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will decide who will get the White House. Biden seems to be in lead in all states except North Carolina.
Historically, only 10 presidents have failed to win in the second-term elections. This raises the question of whether or not this search indicates that Trump might secure his second-term.
Dr. Dick Simpson, a professor in the Political Science department at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said “I don’t think the searches on Google are a good guide to voting outcomes. Public opinion polls are better but not perfect as they were in some error in 2016.”
Dr. Alexandra Filindra, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago said, “We don’t know whether it’s Democrats looking up Trump for his craziness or if it is people who are interested in voting for him. This search analysis doesn’t tell me anything because it is too rough. For example, Rhode Island is a solidly blue state, it’s irrelevant why people would look up Trump. The relevant searches in the same state may be more interesting. ”
The Google search has its flaws as multiple factors should be considered. For example, one can simply look up Donald Trump because of a comment he made and it doesn’t truly show us whether or not that person supports Trump or Biden.
During this time around, voting in person is a challenge for many due to COVID-19 which is why mail-in voting was validated. There is no doubt that COVID-19 can affect voter turnout in the elections, especially for minorities.
“So far, early turnout has been high. For instance, more than 2 million voters have requested mail-in ballots in Illinois. However, people will be hesitant to go to the polls on Election Day. It is harder for minorities to do so, and they may be less motivated to do so. However, I expect turnout to be up from 2016,” Simpsons said.
Moreover, mail-in voting may be new to many voters, and in the US certain rules need to be followed by voters to make their vote count. Furthermore, Trump has opposed funding for Postal Services to hold back mail-in voting.
“COVID-19 is still prevalent, but it’s my first time using mail-in ballot which is why I’m nervous about my vote not being counted due to many rules that need to be followed,” Ali said.
“We cannot be sure that everyone is following the detailed instructions in many states with mail-in voting. For example, states like Pennsylvania require two envelopes. They have something called a privacy envelope so you put your ballot in one envelope and you put that envelope into a bigger envelope. According to the rules, if you used only one envelope, your ballot becomes invalid,” Filindra added.
Chaudry stated that “I don’t trust the current mailing system to deliver my vote in time so I’ll be dropping it off at the ballot box at my local voting office.”
Also, there is a possibility that people will have to wait longer to know who has won as it’ll take time for mail-in ballots to be tabulated. According to the constitution, if there isn’t a clear winner, the election goes to the House of Representatives.
Filindra said that “There is a serious concern that the election is going to be stolen through inappropriate but constitutional means. In the first presidential debate, Trump said that he intends to delegitimize mail-in ballots. Even though he voted by mail-in ballot in Florida. He would try to secure an electoral win by going to the court or by getting republican legislation to invalidate these votes.”
“People are already voting in many states, including Illinois so it will not be easy for President Trump or his senate candidates to reverse the numbers,” Simpson said.
Now, the main question is “Who is going to be the next president?” In the past elections, unexpected candidates have won. People can trust the polls if they choose to, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. It is the general public who has the most power when it comes to elections and all they have to do is vote for their choice of candidate.
